Australian beef output is forecast todecline to 1.34 mln tonnes carcass weight in 1987 and 1.36 mln
in 1988 from 1.44 mln in 1986, the Australian Meat and
Live-Stock Corp (AMLC) said.
    Exports of beef/veal are also predicted to decline to
480,000 tonnes shipped weight in 1987 from 515,000 in 1986, and
then rally to 490,000 in 1988, the AMLC said in a summary of
its bi-annual meat and livestock forecasts.
    It sees cattle numbers remaining at around the 1986 level
of 23.2 mln beasts in both years because herd rebuilding is
expected to be slower than previously forecast.
    Beef producers are becoming more confident that higher
returns in the market, both domestically and overseas, will
continue, the AMLC said.
    The slow herd build-up and the forecast lower production is
expected to bring about a slight drop in both export and
domestic consumption this year, it said.
    The forecast does not assume a turnaround in production
levels until late next year.
    It said the outlook for beef exports as a proportion of
output remains much the same as last year when it was around 55
pct of total production. In 1985 it was 52 pct.
    The increase in exports of beef as a percentage of
production has mainly been attributed to the decline in the
Australian dollar, the AMLC said.
    It also forecast that Australia's four major markets, the
U.S., Japan, Canada and Taiwan, will continue to dominate the
chilled and frozen beef export markets. They take collectively
around 94 pct of total Australian exports.
 REUTER
